Happy New Year to all. As I've done the last few years, I'm going to make some predictions about what the coming year will bring in the world of the iPhone and iPod. My 2010 predictions were pretty good, but sort of terrible in 2011, as we'll see. Here's to 2012 being more accurate!
What I Got Right in 2011
- No 7-inch iPad
- Pretty much nothing else
What I Got Wrong in 2011
- Pretty much everything.
- I expected the Apple TV to get iOS apps, that iCloud would be based around streaming, the iPod Classic would be retired, iTunes would include a music or video subscription service, and that there iPhone would stay on just 2 carriers. Oops!
Some of my 2011 prediction are going to reappear on my 2012 list. I'm bound to get them right eventually! Along with the predictions, I'm listing the likelihood that they will come true.
iTV - Whether or not it's actually called the iTV, I believe we're going to see an Apple-branded HDTV this year, with the current Apple TV's features built in, and then some. 90%
iTV uses Siri - When that TV shows up, I expect Siri to be a major component of the interface, if not the key one. 85%
iTV gets all content from iTunes - Steve Jobs reportedly "solved" the problems of TV before his death. One of those problems is likely to be cable company subscription plans and pricing tiers. It's not hard to imagine the iTV getting all of its content from iTunes to sidestep the cable companies completely (though it would be a pretty huge departure from the usual). 60%
iTV is 42 inches or bigger - Some rumors have the new TV offering a few models in the 30-inch range. That seems far too small to me. There are a ton of affordable 42-inch HDTVs these days, with bigger TVs getting more affordable all the time. It's hard to imagine Apple staking its entry into a new field with a TV that's substantially behind the times. 80%
iPhone to T-Mobile - I doubted that the iPhone would get a 3rd U.S. carrier this year, but it did. The question now is, when will T-Mobile, the final major U.S. carrier, get the iPhone? I suspect that AT&T's takeover bid was an obstacle to T-Mobile getting the iPhone. Now that that bid is over, 2012 will be the year that the iPhone goes pink. 75%
4G LTE iPhone - Despite not bringing the high speed 4G LTE standard to the iPhone 4S, Apple will have solved the battery-life issues related to the technology and bring it to the iPhone 5. 65%
iPod Classic lives on - I predict its demise every year, and every year it lives on. This year, I'm not going to make that mistake again. 65%
One new out-of-leftfield device - Who knows what it will be, but I suspect that we'll get one new, totally unanticipated Apple device that's not an iPhone, iPod, iPad,or TV this year. 50%